Source: Bao.hvacr.cn (Refrigeration Express)
As September draws to a close, the refrigerant market has not ushered in the full “Golden September” boom. Instead, it shows a pattern of high sideways fluctuation and divergent performance among different refrigerant grades. Quota policies continue to underpin market prices, and manufacturers firmly stick to the strategy of controlling output to support prices. However, weak downstream air conditioner production schedules and slow inventory digestion have caused price softening for some products. The refrigerant market at the end of September features obvious divergence across varieties.
1. R32: Backbone Refrigerant for Air Conditioning, Major Manufacturers Hold Price at 65,000 RMB/ton
As the core refrigerant for residential air conditioners, R32 pricing attracts the most market attention. Since September, major domestic manufacturers offer domestic quotations around 65,500 RMB/ton, while export high quotations stand at roughly 63,500 RMB/ton. Although the year-on-year output of terminal air conditioners has declined, manufacturers remain firm on price support. Spot supplies are relatively tight, leaving limited room for price drops in the short term.
2. R134a: Quota + Solid End-User Demand Keep Prices High
Driven jointly by production quota restrictions and rigid market demand, R134a maintains its high price level. Current mainstream market quotations range from 64,000 to 65,000 RMB per ton. Some large manufacturers such as Sinochem Lantian offer domestic ex-factory price up to 68,000 RMB/ton. According to data from Business Society, the reference price of R134a on September 22 was 65,000 RMB/ton, rising by 3.72% over the past 90 days.
3.R22: Burdened by Inventory & Sluggish Demand, Price Faces Downward Pressure
Different from the strong performance of R32 and R134a, R22 is one of the few products with price relaxation recently. Accumulating factory inventory combined with weak demand drags down R22 prices. Current market quotes fall between 20,500 and 23,000 RMB/ton, and some distributors see inverted prices in real deals. Nevertheless, major producers still keep relatively firm offers at about 24,000 RMB/ton, and export prices are near 17,000 RMB/ton.
4.R125 & R410A: Tight Supply, Prices Follow Raw Material Costs
Constrained by production quotas, R125 plant operating rates stay low, leading to tight export supply. Its mainstream quotation is 55,000–60,000 RMB/ton. As of September 18, both domestic and export prices of R125 were flat at 55,000 RMB/ton. As a blended refrigerant, R410A price moves mainly in line with raw material costs, with quotations centered at 59,000–60,000 RMB/ton, staying generally stable.
5. Core Market Drivers: Suppliers Dominate Pricing Power
1. Supply Side: Quota Restrictions & Output Control Strategy
The production of HFC (3rd generation refrigerants) is strictly regulated by quota systems, which is the key factor supporting prices. Manufacturers widely adopt the strategy of limiting production to stabilize market prices.
2. Demand Side: Contrasting Domestic & Overseas Demand, Overall Weakness
Air conditioner makers are currently under dual pressure of inventory reduction and poor demand. Domestic production schedules decreased year-on-year. Downstream buyers only purchase to cover immediate needs and are unwilling to build large inventories. By contrast, export production rises year-on-year, forming a clear divergence between domestic and overseas sales.
3. Cost Side: Strong Raw Material Support
Upstream materials including fluorite and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid keep high prices, providing cost support for refrigerant products.
6.Short-term Market Outlook: High-level Consolidation, Differentiation Continues
Overall, backed by quota policies and manufacturers’ production control strategy, suppliers hold stronger pricing power in the refrigerant market. The market is expected to maintain this structural divergence pattern: restricted supply paired with weak demand. Prices of mainstream refrigerants will likely stay at high levels.
– R32 and R134a are expected to remain strong.
– R22 may face further price pressure due to inventory and weak consumption.
– R125 and R410A prices will fluctuate along with raw material costs and plant operation rates.
For downstream buyers: purchase only for immediate use, be cautious of chasing rising prices.
For traders: tracking major manufacturers’ offers and quota implementation schedule will be the core operation strategy in the next stage.
At the end of September, the refrigerant market is not simply rising or falling. It is a story of high price divergence shaped by quotas, inventories and end demand. As long as suppliers stick to production control, the overall price level will not drop sharply. However, if demand remains sluggish, some refrigerant grades may see further price softening.
Disclaimer: This article is for market reference only. Source: Bao.hvacr.cn (Refrigeration Express)